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Estimate at Completion (EAC) should reflect how the future will actually be executed, not merely extrapolate past performance. When significant scope changes or major re-estimations occur, historic cost efficiency (CPI) is a poor predictor for the remaining work. In such cases, PMI guidance favors a bottom-up Estimate to Complete (ETC): re-assess the unfinished scope at the current rates, methods, and resource plan, then compute EAC = AC + Bottom-Up ETC. Option A (BAC/CPI) assumes past cost performance will persist—reasonable only when the work mix and conditions remain similar. Option B (AC + (BAC − EV)) assumes the remaining work will be completed as originally planned (i.e., CPIfuture = 1.0), which doesn’t hold after scope/baseline changes. Option D (BAC/(CPI×SPI)) bakes schedule inefficiency into the cost forecast, appropriate when both cost and schedule trends will continue—again not true when a fresh plan replaces earlier patterns. A bottom-up ETC aligns EAC with new realities, improves credibility with stakeholders, and provides a sound basis for change control and re-baselining if approved.