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The PERT weighted average emphasizes the Most Likely value to reflect typical outcomes while acknowledging uncertainty. The formula is (O + 4M + P) / 6. Substituting the values: (10 + 4×14 + 22) / 6 = (10 + 56 + 22) / 6 = 88 / 6 ≈ 14.67 days, commonly rounded to 14.7 days. This expected duration feeds schedule network analysis and risk-aware forecasting. Teams may also compute variance: ((P − O) / 6)² = (12/6)² = 2² = 4, enabling aggregation of uncertainty across paths to analyze schedule risk. While simple, three-point estimates reduce bias compared to single-point estimates and help identify activities with high uncertainty for targeted risk responses (contingency, buffers, alternative strategies). CAPM candidates should also distinguish PERT from triangular distributions (equal weights) and understand when to refine inputs via expert judgment, historical data, or parametric models. After calculation, validate whether the activity lies on or near the critical path, since uncertainty there has disproportionate impact on the project completion date.