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The passage draws a weather–climate distinction and uses an analogy (one dice roll) to emphasize statistical reasoning: single events are not probative for evaluating models that describe distributions over time. Therefore, C precisely states the claim: long-run trends, not isolated events, evaluate climate models. Option A contradicts the author’s caution against over-interpreting single storms. Option B claims superiority of forecasts, which the passage neither states nor implies. Option D asserts identity rather than related but distinct scales, discarding the central distinction the author makes. For Nelson–Denny comprehension, analogies often encode the thesis; here, the dice example maps event vs. distribution. Selecting the answer that preserves that mapping—weakness of single instances, strength of aggregated data—aligns your choice with the author’s reasoning and evidence.